Financial
markets' participants will be on a date with a number of important economic
data this week, led by the growth data in China, in addition to retail sales
and unemployment benefits data in the United States.
The
Chinese government will release important data, including industrial production
and retail sales, but the most prominent is the GDP report for the first
quarter of 2020, where expectations indicate a contraction of 6 percent on an
annual basis, compared to 6 percent growth in the last quarter of 2019.
The
expected significant contraction would largely reflect the negative impact of
the outbreak of the Corona virus in China and the subsequent precautionary
measures to reduce the spread of the virus.
US
Dollar
The
movements of the US dollar this week will depend on the impact of economic data
from the world’s largest economy, as well as any developments related to the
spread of the Corona virus in the United States.
For
economic reports, investors will carefully watch the retail sales data for
March, in addition to the weekly report on unemployment benefits, which showed
a significant deterioration in the labor market as a result of the outbreak of
the Covid-19.
Expectations
for retail sales, which largely reflect the size of household spending on goods
and services, indicate a 7.0 percent decrease in March after a 0.5 percent
decline in February.
As
for the initial jobless claims, expectations are for 5.7 million in the week
ended April 11, after 6.6 million registered a week before.
Also,
some data on the housing and manufacturing sectors, as well as consumer
confidence, may receive some attention from investors.
Euro
The
euro will most likely move according to the general trend in financial markets
due to the absence of high-relevance economic data from the Eurozone.
But
the most important report will be the final consumer price index for the month
of March in the euro area, where it is expected to confirm a 0.7 percent increase
on an annual basis after recording a rise of 1.2 percent in February.
Pound
Sterling
As
for the British pound, it is also predicted to move according to the general
trend in the markets amid the lack of highly important economic data this week
from the British economy.
Therefore,
traders should monitor the latest developments related to the spread of the
Corona virus in Britain and follow any comments from BOE monetary policy
members.
Commodities
Gold
prices rose at the end of last week to the highest level in a month as a result
of the dollar's decline after the US Federal Reserve rolled out a massive
stimulus plan.
This
week, gold prices will depend on the important economic data published by the
major economies, especially the US and China’s GDP data.
With
regard to oil, prices witnessed some decline after Mexico postponed the
agreement reached by OPEC + to reduce oil production by 10 million barrels per
day, which was agreed upon at the end of last week.
Oil price movements
will hinge on the state of optimism or pessimism in markets in the event of any
developments regarding the virus, as well as the possibility of activating the
new OPEC+ agreement to reduce crude production.
