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All possible Brexit scenarios!

All possible Brexit scenarios

The UK is in a state of uncertainty amid expectations that a new political storm will kick off when MPs return to Westminster next month. 

The European Bank of ING said that the basic scenario it expects is an early election and an extension of the Brexit deadline, where the probability of this scenario represents only 40%, and warning of a fall of sterling to 95 penny against the euro in the coming months and increased pressure on the economy, which already contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter.

Some also argue that the current government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson has no intention to negotiate a new deal with the European Union since its basic strategy is to come out without an agreement. 

But how can early elections take place? 

One of the scenarios on the table is that the opposition will pass a no confidence vote on Johnson's government as soon as parliament returns in early September.

If the government loses parliament's confidence, other parties must form a coalition government within 14 days, but if attempts to form a government fail, the only solution would be holding new general elections. 

However, Johnson may prefer to announce an early election himself and that he may set the date for voting immediately after the Brexit at the end of October, with the aim of reining in the opposition and returning to voters before the negative effects of a chaotic no-deal Brexit emerge. 

More to mention that According to Parliamentary rules, the Parliament must be dissolved at least 25 days before the election. 

If Johnson sets the election date after the Brexit, it means that the Parliament will not neither convene in the pre-Brexit period nor prevent a chaotic exit from the EU.

Perhaps Johnson is betting on this scenario to deliver on his promise to achieve Brexit, and possibly also to eliminate opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn.

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