Fundamental Comment

Figure out key points of the IEA monthly report


The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report released on Wednesday that the world's crude oil production capacity may have reached its limits, while there are no signs of rising production around the world in a way that would reduce the fears of weak supply in the markets.

The IEA said that OPEC and Russia had recorded the highest level of production in four months in June, an increase of 180,000 barrels per day, bringing the total production to 31.87 million barrels per day.

The agency raised its 2018 forecast for OPEC production by 100,000 barrels per day to 32 million barrels per day, while reduced the forecast for 2019 by 100,000 barrels per day, bringing OPEC's total production to 31.4 million barrels per day.

Regarding oil supplies outside OPEC, the IEA cut its 2018 forecast by 70,000 barrels per day to 60.2 million barrels and kept its 2019 forecast steady at 62 million barrels per day.

The Agency highlighted that the sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran could result in a fall in oil exports by 1.2 million barrels per day, especially since US President Donald Trump has warned countries to buy Iranian oil.

The United States also exerted pressure on OPEC during its last meeting in June to reduce price levels by increasing production levels, where OPEC agreed to increase only 700 thousand barrels.

US crude oil futures fell on Wednesday to a two-week low of $ 73.64 a barrel despite a significant drop in US oil inventories last week by 12.6 million barrels.

Yet, crude prices recovered today as it hit a high of $ 71.11 a barrel, and Brent crude prices also set a peak of $75.03 a barrel after hitting a three-week low of $ 73.03 a barrel yesterday.

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